- P(gun)]
2016ƴW(xu)_}
_}һNµđ(yng)ÌwČB2016ƴW(xu)_}
2016ƴW(xu)_}(1)
һՓx}ıx
(һ)
ĸ_ԁЇ(jng)(j)(jng)v˸׃ȫкͼwI(y)l(f)չIСI(y)l(f)]ҪõĻԽ(jng)(j)ڴI(y)M(jn)Ya(chn)ؽMˆTͮa(chn)ƷY(ji)(gu){(dio)н(jng)(j)ӽ(jng)(j)L@p˕r҇СI(y)õl(f)չɞ鱣և(jng)(j)m(x)L܊҇СI(y)ڻSЈ{͘I(y)M(jn)g(sh)(chung)c ڄ(chung)Rȷl(f)]ԽԽѳɞ҇(jng)(j)µĽ(jng)(j)Lc(din)
()x
҇ռI(y)(sh)99%СI(y)(chung)74%ĹI(y)ֵ63%gdpռеĽYԴs20%СI(y)Yy}ѽ(jng)(yn)Ƽs˽(jng)(j)İl(f)չݵI(y)wһСI(y)@Ҳ(do)˺ݵСI(y)Ҳڇ(yn)صYy}mȻڙC(j)(gu)ȡһϵеĴʩDz]ЏĸϽQСI(y)Yy}?yn)СI(y)λҪԣԽQСI(y)Yy}ǿ̲ݾ
P(gun)о³ɹӑB(ti)(īI(xin)CwcY(ji))
(һ)P(gun)СI(y)Y}о
СI(y)ѸͰl(f)չ(jng)(j)l(f)չˏ(qing)ƄСI(y)(chung)(jng)Il(f)չ^Yyһֱ_СI(y)Ĵ}̽ЧĴʩQСI(y)Yy}ѳɞСI(y)(jng)(j)ߵҪ(ni)ݺc(din)ձӢȶƶP(gun)ĴM(jn)СI(y)l(f)չߣֵ҂b
P(gun)I(y)YՓоҪYY(ji)(gu)ՓڵYY(ji)(gu)Փ(jng)(j)W(xu)Ҵl(wi)m,Փ,(jng)IՓ͂y(tng)ՓF(xin)YY(ji)(gu)Փγ20o(j)ʮʮmmһ̽ӑղYY(ji)(gu)ӰQ“W(xu)”һоƮa(chn)ɱcYY(ji)(gu)P(gun)ϵl(f)չɞؔ(w)ɱW(xu)γ“Ʈa(chn)ɱx”“ؔ(w)x”ϲ(qun)ՓʮϢQͲՓʹYY(ji)(gu)Փоl(f)һ|(zh)wSYY(ji)(gu)ՓϢQ뽛(jng)(j)W(xu)·µČW(xu)g(sh)ҕҰYY(ji)(gu)}˲µ^c(din)
adolphusj.toby(XX)\(yn)1999XXgСI(y)P(gun)(sh)(j)yԇ4\(yn)ЬF(xin)ѵI(y)J(rn)錦СI(y)fm(x)LYԺͱҪӯcͶYYQP(gun)Mؔ(w)O(jin)߱Mȫf(xi){(dio)Ժ͠I@ɂìܵĿ(bio)^Y(ji)Ȼ¶ؔ(w)
alastair metcalf(XX)J(rn)һd˾ҪY\(yn)е֧(dng)Ȼ߀YLD(zhun)ڹ˾YLͬr@һҹ˾ҪӶĹɱ(xing)ĿYĶÁֺ֧ϲُ(dng)r˾ҪYؽMCȯԓ˾l(f)yҪI(y)ؽMӋؽMYҵһJ˿YҪĶעĘI(y)(w)\(yn)
()(ni)СI(y)Y}о
1СI(y)YF(xin)
YһI(y)Ͱl(f)չԭDZزٵXX9·ԁJΣC(j)l(f)L(fng)ϯȫSΣC(j)҇СI(y)ܵ˲̶ͬȵӰڳӆEp(yng)~ڼLԭϼ˹ɱY֧ǰӴI(y)RY朔ѵΣUYyɞ鮔(dng)ǰȫ^(q)СI(y)cl(f)չҪRy}
(XX)J(rn)СI(y)Y}һy},ҲһLn}ĸ_30,СI(y)ѽ(jng)ɞ҇(jng)(j)l(f)չеһ֧Ҫ,ռȫI(y)99.8%СI(y)ڷs(jng)(j)M(jn)LU(ku)͘I(y)Ƅӄ(chung)µȷl(f)]ԽԽҪYyһֱ_҇СI(y)l(f)չϵKMȡһϵнڴʩСI(y)Yh(hun),Yy}δõܺõĽQF(xin)еYh(hun)cI(y)ϣ^,СI(y)JMԴ
t÷(XX)ָYy}һֱ_СI(y)İl(f)չȥԁćHΣC(j)ʹ҇СI(y)RYڴ˴ȫΣC(j)(dng)҇(jng)غСI(y)ܵ(yn)ӰXXȫ7.5%
СI(y)ͣa(chn)ͣa(chn)ߵ]ȫг^30 fI(y)ͣa(chn)ͣa(chn)s2500 fr(nng)˷l(xing)СI(y){(zhn)͘I(y)ҪdwСI(y)r͘I(y)ɾҪQ(yn)ľ͘I(y)}P(gun)IСI(y)l(f)չ@xv֧СI(y)l(f)չHLҌ(wn)ИOҪ
2СI(y)Yyԭ
(ni)W(xu)оl(f)F(xin)҇СI(y)ûA(ch)^yнY(ji)(gu)⡢ЈwϵɷҎ(gu)ȫСI(y)wϵ߀δTԭʹСI(y)YRܴy
o(j)(XX)ָI(y)ⲿY;ҪЃɷNһֱYͨ^YЈIY;gYҪͨ^ڙC(j)(gu)J@YĿǰ҇СI(y)ͨ^@ɷN;IYʮy@NԭȻSԭF(xin)ڃɂ棺СI(y)?xing)l|(zh)@һnjYɲӰ푵ă(ni)ԭ;F(xin)wƺߵӰ푡@СI(y)Yyⲿԭ
xС÷(XX)J(rn)飺ĿǰYyѳɞ_СI(y)l(f)չͻ}γ@һ}ԭǶģн(jng)(j)W(xu)xϵvʷ;к^ԭ^ԭ;^ϵԭϵԭ@ЩeC(f)sؚwY(ji)һc(din)wƺƶȵȱݣǮa(chn)(qun)ƶȺͽƶȱ
(XX)ָСI(y)RҪ}棬ڳɹҪͱ횓һYڬF(xin)(sh)УСI(y)cI(y)Y^y@Ҫ?yn)yеϢܸСI(y)yԳܣʹСI(y)܉Г(dn)u(y)ԭyһҲֻԸI(y)J
ռԪ(XX)ָСI(y)YyԭǶ,cСI(y)P(gun) ,Ҳc҇ĽwP(gun) ,߀cP(gun)w·СI(y)|(zh)ƫ;yJoСI(y)L(fng)Uɱ治Q;yзL(fng)UR(qing);СI(y)(w)СڙC(j)(gu)(sh),(sh);СI(y)ȱЧĵѺ͓(dn);ֱY
3QСI(y)Y}Č
YyԭԿСI(y)YyI(y)(jng)Iϴڵ첻ҲнڙC(j)(gu)λƫJ(qun)յȲƥͬrСI(y)l(f)չ߲ȫíh(hun)ҲƼsСI(y)YyҪԭP(gun)оҲҪI(y)yСǶQ
IYI(y)M(jn)һϵлӵțQlY(ji)оɹСI(y)Y}ձڸ^(q)C(j)(ni)λW(xu)ߌڸСI(y)YF(xin)D(zhun)YyԭĿʹҌĿǰ(ni)@I(lng)оɹһ^ȫJ(rn)R
ͨ^(ni)P(gun)СI(y)YՓīI(xin)M(jn)x҂l(f)F(xin)ԓI(lng)о߀ׂĆ}(1)϶ᘌ҇СI(y)оᘌijһʡijһ^(q)Ąt^оĵ̫V(2)СI(y)Y}о漰HΣC(j)µо^Y(ji)Ϯ(dng)±?yn)?ni)⌣ҌW(xu)СI(y)Y}о߀}ԓƪՓĽY(ji)χHΣC(j)ȫrСI(y)Ӈ(yn)Y}ĻA(ch)ԺݞһЩСI(y)Y}Ľh
оĻ(ni)cMQҪ}
(һ)оĻ(ni)ݣ
1СI(y)҇Ľ(jng)(j)λ
2СI(y)Ywϵĸ
3СI(y)YĬF(xin)Ͱķ
4СI(y)YyĸNԭо̽ӑ
()MQҪ}
1νQСI(y)YԼĽh
2(do)ºСI(y)Yyԭҳͻƿ
3СҊɺСI(y)Y}ЇI(y)YڵĆ}
ġоķcg(sh)·
(һ)о
1īI(xin)оȌڇ(ni)P(gun)ՓīI(xin)M(jn)ЏVx˽Շ(ni)P(gun)ՓӑB(ti)ՓA(ch)
2{(dio)鷨ͨ^{(dio)߰l(f)Ҫԃ()ՈʾP(gun)}Ҋͽhgӫ@òϺϢһN
3ָь(sh)HгF(xin)Ć}鰸ҳ(yng)ĽY(ji)Փ
4. ӑՓcώJ(rn) ȡҊͽh (wfоʲô(ni)) ()g(sh)·(讋Df)
оĿwcM(jn)ȣ
XX.10.14—XX.11.14 ɮI(y)Փx}
XX.11.15—XX.12.30 īI(xin)Cķg_} XX.01.01—XX.03.04 ɮI(y)Փij XX.03.05—XX.04.23 I(y)(sh)(x)Փ XX.04.24—XX.05.02 I(y)ՓĶ
ҪīI(xin)(ͬīI(xin)C)
[1] ϼϷ.҇СI(y)Ywϵо.ƌW(xu)磬 XX8
[2] .\ՄСI(y)Y}. F(tun)(jng)(j)оXX9 [3] .СI(y)Y}.غI(y)cƼXX11 [4]ɯx.̽ЇСI(y)Y}.̘I(y)оXX4 [5] ̄QO.СI(y)Y.AW(xu)XX [6] ̇Ƽ.҇СI(y)Yyijc.ؔQ(mo)оXX [7] ܷ.СI(y)Yyԭ.Ϸ XX
[8] .СI(y)ڙC(j)(gu)l(f)չcСI(y)Y.(jng)(j)оXX1 [9] P(gun)P(gun).СI(y)Y}c.I(y)(jng)(j)XX1 [10]܊.I(y)Y.cO(sh)XX
[11]֥,G.СI(y)YF(xin)}c(chung)[j].^(q)(jng)(j)XX(4). [12] wһo.СI(y)Y}̽[j].ڽ̌W(xu)cо,XX,(5). [13] ,.СI(y)YĬF(xin)c[j].ƽɽW(xu)ԺW(xu),XX,(5).
[14] ~.҇IСI(y)Y}[j].ĴW(xu)ԺW(xu) ,XX,(1). [15] M(jn)СI(y)YwƄ(chung)¡CȯrXX04 [16].\ՄYߌ(jng)IߵıO(jin)C(j).ЇƼϢXX20 [17].ՓYؔ(w)L(fng)Uķc.ϣXX10 [18] []·ղɭ·.I(y)Փ:ОɱЙ(qun)Y(ji)(gu)[m]1976
[19]Ķ·ɣ.ӋcՓ.|ؔ(jng)W(xu)XX
[20]_˹·l.ߴ_·l.RĦ.(sh)CӋՓ.|ؔ(jng)W(xu)磬1999
2016ƴW(xu)_}(2)
}ĿСW(xu)옷{(dio)о
1.1 оC
1.1.1 ߅_ʼĿ옷cо
ӢW(xu)˺߅ЈԴڂW(xu)ČW(xu)ʹc}R,ʹÂW(xu)Ұѿ옷cОĵ(zhn)trֵД(lin)ϵW(xu)@һcrֵ(lin)ϵ,ʹ܌W(xu)еĿ옷[ɞ邐W(xu)е“”ڿ옷“ڿ옷Ǻõ”,@ǹxԭt[1]
1.1.2 (jng)(j)W(xu)P(gun)ڿ옷cЧõо
ڽ(jng)(j)W(xu)ѿ옷뽛(jng)(j)W(xu)옷——Чö}оʼڽ˹(chung)߅HЧՓ˹J(rn)飬(jng)(j)W(xu)ĿľоСʹQȡ옷˂M(fi)Ŀı옷pʹ19o(j)70,Ӣ(jng)(j)W(xu)ҽ˹Ʒ܉o˂옷ČԽ綨Чá[2]˹фڄӶxܵʹ༴ؓ(f)ЧڄõĿ옷tЧĄڄӕrgtɄڄӵ߅H(ЧãYa(chn)Ŀ옷)߅Hɱ(ɄڄӮa(chn)ؓ(f)Ч:ʹ)Q[3] ڽ(jng)(j)W(xu),옷D(zhun)“Ч”ԽڼslµxО顣ĶҊ,(jng)(j)W(xu)Чøı|(zh)xȻǿ옷,옷Ч[4]
1.1.3 W(xu)ҕеĿ옷ָ(sh)^ҸМy
W(xu)Ƕȿ,옷ǂw(j)(bio)(zhn)|(zh)^urcԷ(yng),^ҸС[5]עwОоČW(xu)ʹ옷оM(jn)һD(zhun)^,ͻ옷Ăw———cJ(rn)֪оc֮(yng),W(xu)҂Ը“Ҹ”옷һЩ܌W(xu)J(rn)Ҹָ˂õcОB(ti),˺ع(ji)Ƹְl(f)]ĝĶʹ˸ԲƵĻ[6]
1.1.4 W(xu)ҕеĿ옷ָ(sh)|(zh)cMȜy
W(xu)I(lng)P(gun)ڿ옷cҸоc(din)Ⱥww(yn),ĿҵһN܉urض^|(zh)cMȵָ(bio)wϵW(xu)ҕеĿ옷yҪF(xin)|(zh)^ָ(bio)Ę(gu)^̡
W(xu)R,l(f)չĸĿ˵õҸ,˸ܿ옷,˂|(zh),_(d)˿옷ĠB(ti),fnjĽKOP(gun)W(xu)Ҍ옷оȺr“J(rn)”M̶Ȟעc(din)ġ[7]
1.2 (ni)оC
҇,20o(j)80Ժ_ʼҕ|(zh)о1985ϵ״չ_{(dio)J(rn)|(zh)njurͿY(ji)о˂^B(ti)YϞA(ch)22y˂ĝM1987,ϵϺо|(zh){(dio)锵(sh)(j)Ăw13̽ӑָ(bio)c|(zh)@ɂоI(lng)֮gP(gun)ϵ20o(j)80к@ɴо(c)MwI(lng)ķcָ(bio)P(gun)ϵ̽ӑ,҇W(xu)I(lng)?q)˂MоeһЩ(jng)(yn)
C^(ni)P(gun)ڿ옷ָ(sh)о܌W(xu)ΌW(xu)(jng)(j)W(xu)W(xu)W(xu)W(xu)TI(lng)P(gun)ڿ옷˼δֹͣ^f옷˂ҪԡҪ(qing){(dio),옷܉(zhn)__(d)еĸ,ҸMЧáƫõȸĠrKw䐂옷ă(ni)w(yn)߶ȵ
옷˵һN^w(yn)(sh)옷mȻһN(ni)ڵww(yn)@Nww(yn)cܛQ“^S”䌍(sh)ͬˌĴ̼خa(chn)һӵw(yn)ͬˣҪͬ옷w(yn)ͬJ(rn)옷˂^y(tng)һԵĮa(chn)옷һNͨ^Ĵ̼wa(chn)ă(ni)w(yn)ͨ^}urSwҪ׃׃
ڿ옷Kͨ^wܵģ˿옷ָ(sh)ַQ^옷ٷ?jn)?sh)ʾ˂^옷M̶[8]Ҫ(qing){(dio)҂ܺҕ猦wá
2 x}ԭx
2.1 x}ԭ
СW(xu)wϵоڻA(ch)λ^m(x)еȽṩ˗lں̶ܴϛQW(xu)δ˸Һδl(f)չҪֵ˼|(zh)̖ӂǷܵW(xu)(x)Ŀ옷옷cHӰСW(xu)F(xin)ڵԼW(xu)(x)SһijLδB(yng)˲СW(xu)Ŀ옷옷c옷ָ(sh)ֵȫͬP(gun)ע
ږ|h(hun)СW(xu)(sh)(x)gϵİͬW(xu)һxͥŮĘҿ栀ЦĘӂͯr(yng)еĿ옷IJrI(y)ͬW(xu)(jng)ЦI(y)О顣һ҆“ʲôrI(y)?”ػش“댑ҺI(y)Ϻ֡”ʲô@Щ꼉ĺӶһ݂һݿ옷@HǼͥW(xu)УԭҲS߀ô@Щʲô?@˼
˼ĻA(ch)ҾˡСW(xu)옷ָ(sh)20}Ŀ}Ŀ漰ӰСW(xu)옷9(HP(gun)ϵP(gun)ϵͬW(xu)P(gun)ϵW(xu)(x)W(xu)УnrgR҃rֵСЧܸ)W(xu)M(jn)І{(dio)
2.2 x}x
оǏČ(sh)CĽǶͨ^ԾĆ{(dio)ֶ̽СW(xu)Ŀ옷̶M(jn)yСW(xu)옷ָ(sh)ڮ(dng)СW(xu)Ŀ옷ָ(sh)(sh)CоărֵPJ(rn)飺
(1)СW(xu)“옷ָ(sh)”M(jn)̽ǙzyСW(xu)B(ti)Ҫָ(bio)СW(xu)“옷ָ(sh)”M(jn)Мyc|(zh)ƿ옷ĸʹõđB(ti)Ͷ뵽W(xu)(x)УĶСW(xu)ĵĺCl(f)չ
(2)СW(xu)Ŀ옷rܞ̎ͼLӵĽṩ慢
(3)M(jn)п옷ʹܵķeOxeOϾҪx
(4)M(jn)п옷ԸõشM(jn)ӂԵijְl(f)չɞ˸ȫȫl(f)չ˲|(zh)δO(sh)Ͱl(f)չԼķeOؕI(xin)
3 оĘ(gu)
3.1 оă(ni)
(1)СW(xu)옷оu
(2)СW(xu)옷оF(xin)
(3)ӰСW(xu)옷M(jn)нy(tng)Ӌóy(tng)ӋY(ji)
(4)(j)y(tng)ӋY(ji)СW(xu)옷Ӱ̽ӰСW(xu)옷ĸԴ
(5)(j)ӰСW(xu)옷ԼW(xu)̽Ch(hun)h(hun)ͼͥh(hun)ӽ옷LıҪԺҪ
(6)(j)оĽY(ji)F(xin)(sh)綼P(gun)СW(xu)Ŀ옷}СW(xu)е߅h(hun)
3.2 оČͷ
3.2.1
{(dio)xȡмl(xing)(zhn)СW(xu)ɂ༉꼉110W(xu)M(jn)МyԇЧ97
3.2.2
(1){(dio)鷨
ͨ^ԾСW(xu)옷ָ(sh)20}ĿքeЖ|h(hun)СW(xu)ƽ(zhn)СW(xu)СW(xu)꼉W(xu)M(jn)І{(dio)}漰HP(gun)ϵP(gun)ϵͬW(xu)P(gun)ϵW(xu)(x)W(xu)УnrgR҃rֵСЧܸ9ͬ龳µww(yn)ÿ}5c(din)߶ӋֵķW(xu)xһ(xing)ԼĴy(tng)Ӌr(xing)xַքe54321,P(gun)ڿ옷w(yn)M֞100ʾܿ옷,ͷ֞20,ʾ
(2)īI(xin)о
ͨ^醈s־ЇڿȫĔ(sh)(j)ՓļP(gun)оɹ
(3)LՄ
(j){(dio)ĽY(ji)LՄVW(xu)M(jn)LՄ
3.2.3 (sh)(j)̎
ռYM(jn)spss 17.0y(tng)ӋܛռĔ(sh)(j)M(jn)з^
3.2.4 оO(sh)
(1)ĸIJͬI(y)ͬW(xu)P(gun)ϵP(gun)ϵʽӰ푌W(xu)옷еҪ
(2)ͯgҲһ̶ӰСW(xu)Ŀ옷С
(3)l(xing)W(xu)УW(xu)Ŀ옷ЬF(xin)ͬ
(4){(dio)醖е9ضڲͬij̶ӰСW(xu)Ŀ옷
4 оĄ(chung)c(din)
(1)_չn}оڼȡ(ni)P(gun)옷ָ(sh)옷оĻA(ch)(j)Ӱ푿옷ؽY(ji)СW(xu)gƶɵġСW(xu)옷ָ(sh)ƆˌuзͬrԃСW(xu)̎ҊԼȡͬW(xu)ҊJ(rn)@Щ}ĿǾһă(ni)ЧȵCСW(xu)ö܉yСW(xu)Ŀ옷С
(3)гl(xing)СW(xu)꼉ɂ༉110λW(xu)ӱM(jn){(dio)дֻ
5 оM(jn)
n}о֞AΣXX6XX5
һAΣ(zhn)A(XX6XX11)
(1)xоn}
(2){(dio)醖
(3)l(f){(dio)醖
ڶAΣ(sh)ʩA(XX12XX1)
(1)xI(y)ՓČ(do)
(2)ָ(do)ָ̎(do)_}档
(3){(dio)醖y(tng)Ӌ
(4)_}
(5)ϽP(gun)
AΣՓ(XX119XX514)
(1)ڽָ̎(do)ɮI(y)Փij
AΣՓuqY(XX517XX521)
(1)ӡbӆͽָ(do)ώP(gun)I(y)uu
(2)qՈϵW(xu)λίTҵĮI(y)ՓM(jn)Y
AΣՓĴq(XX524XX528)
(1)ՓĴq
AΣI(y)ՓļP(gun)(XX61XX67)
(1)I(y)ՓļP(gun)ҪwnϽɹ
īI(xin)
[1]ꐻ,.옷ָ(sh)о[j].ؔ(jng)Փ, XX, (3)29--36
[2]Yԏ(qing),.(jng)(j)W(xu)ݻģʽо[m].Ϻ:Ϻ, 1996348
[3]˹.ν(jng)(j)W(xu)Փ[m].:̄(w)ӡ^, 1984300
[4]ꐻ.옷ԭt———(jng)(j)Оķ[m].:(jng)(j)ƌW(xu), XX57-66
[5]ռ܊.^Ҹо:ҸČ(sh)C̽[j].ՓW(xu), XX,(05)
[6]ꐻ.“옷”ĸ[cՓ[j].܌W(xu)о, XX,(09)
[7]ք.ҸՓ}——c_ͬ־ȶ[j].܌W(xu)о, XX,(04)
[8]콨A,,w.(dng)D^T“옷ָ(sh)”Č(sh)C[j].D, XX,(06)
ƴW(xu)_}桿P(gun)£
C(j)е_}11-04
Փ_}ģ03-20
Ӌ_}11-05
W(xu)Փ_}06-10
I(y)_}淶ģͨ8ƪ07-12
W(xu)_}11-08
W(xu)Փ_}11-21
W(xu)Փ_}15ƪ11-23
W(xu)Փ_}(15ƪ)11-24
W(xu)W(xu)λՓ_}淶10-31